Which of Europe's Young Guns Could Be Selected in the First Round of the 2026 NBA Draft?

Darryn Peterson limped through warmups at Bramlage Coliseum last Sunday ahead of Kansas' trip to rivals Kansas State, testing that ankle that's been barking at him since he rolled it at Colorado earlier in the week. Bill Self watched from the sideline, arms crossed, knowing every NBA executive tracking this kid had the same question: Are the injury concerns real, or just bad luck?

By tipoff, Peterson was ruled out. Again. That made nine missed games in a season where he's supposed to be the prohibitive favorite to go No. 1 overall in June. A hamstring strain cost him seven straight games from November to early December, before cramping issues knocked him out of two more late in the festive period. Now the ankle sprain. Jayhawks fans are holding their breath every time he touches his leg, and scouts are starting to whisper about durability red flags for a freshman who hasn't even turned 20 yet.

The American at the Top of the Board

Here's the thing, though: when Peterson's actually on the floor, he's putting those concerns to bed. He's averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 49.3% from the field and 42% from three. That 63.2% true shooting percentage tells you everything you need to know. The game comes easily to him even when he's not at full explosiveness. There's a poise to how he creates his own shot that you can't teach, a smoothness that separates good college guards from guys who'll run NBA pick-and-rolls in three years.

Online betting sites make him the overwhelming favorite to be selected first overall in the summer. The popular Lucky Rebel currently makes him the -200 frontrunner to hear his name called at the top of the board, with BYU's AJ Dybantsa sitting at +200, Duke's Cameron Boozer at +500. But what of the European contingent? As many as ten players from this side of the pond are expected to be selected in June's draft, but which of them are contenders to be selected in the first round? Here are three that we think have the best chance.

Hannes Steinbach

The numbers tell you Hannes Steinbach shouldn't be here. He was the 68th-ranked recruit in his class. Washington brought him in as depth, maybe a role player who could spell the starters and give you 15 solid minutes off the bench. Instead, he's become the only reason anyone's watching Huskies basketball this winter.

Steinbach is averaging 18.4 points and 11.0 rebounds while shooting 58% from the field. He's fourth nationally in rebounds despite playing for a Washington team that entered late January sitting 2-6 in Big Ten play. This isn't empty production on a juggernaut-this is a 6-foot-11 German keeping a dumpster fire competitive night after night. He's already got 10 double-doubles through 15 games, and he's done it while defenders know exactly what's coming.

Last summer, he led Germany to a silver medal at the U19 World Cup. Averaged 17.4 points and 13.0 rebounds, made the All-Star Five, dropped 19 in the gold medal game despite losing to Team USA. That performance put him on NBA radars, but his college production has scouts genuinely torn.

Mock drafts currently project that he could be on his way to the reigning champions, with the Oklahoma City Thunder taking him 19th overall. But here's where the tension creeps in: Steinbach has only tallied ten blocks in 13 games, he can't move his feet in space, and at 6-foot-11, he's slightly undersized for a traditional center. Is this a future starter or just a high-floor role player who gives you double-doubles for 20 minutes a night? Teams drafting in the mid-teens will have to make that call, and there's no consensus.

Neoklis Avdalas

The text came through during the second half of Virginia Tech's overtime game against Providence in November: "6-9 guard just dropped 33. Luka vibes." By the time Neoklis Avdalas finished dissecting the Friars' defense for 33 points, six assists, and five rebounds, scouts were texting each other screenshots of his pick-and-roll reads like they'd discovered something the rest of the world missed.

Avdalas is a 6-foot-9 freshman running Virginia Tech's offense like a point guard. His size-to-skill ratio is exactly what keeps front offices awake at night in a good way. Before he ever set foot in Blacksburg, he'd already won the Greek League Best Young Player award twice and Most Improved Player in 2025 while playing professionally for Karditsa and Peristeri BC. That's real professional minutes against grown men, not high school showcases.

Mocks project him to Denver at No. 25, which feels perfect for his polished pick-and-roll playmaking. But the million-dollar question separating mid-first from early second is simple: Can he defend at the elite level? His court vision and ability to make reads at his size give him a clear NBA role, but if he's getting cooked by quicker guards in the ACC, that projection slides fast.

One career game doesn't make you Luka. Consistency over the next three months will determine whether he's a first-round lock or a gamble teams pass on.

Dame Sarr

Dame Sarr's sitting on Duke's bench during a blowout in early January, and you can see the frustration written all over his face. He's averaging 6.1 points and 3.3 rebounds on 38.5% shooting through the first months of the season. Those numbers scream bust for a projected first-rounder. Fans look at the box score and wonder what scouts see that they're missing.

Here's what they see: a 6-foot-8 wing with a nearly 7-foot wingspan, huge hands, elite pick-and-roll defense, and the kind of physical profile that defensive-minded franchises circle on draft night. Sarr made history in Barcelona when he debuted for the senior team at just 16 years and seven months, second-youngest ever behind Eric Vila. He logged EuroLeague minutes at 17, playing alongside Jabari Parker, Willy Hernangomez, and Tomas Satoransky. That professional seasoning matters even if it's not showing up in Duke's rotation.

Current projections place him around pick 30, firmly in first-round discussions despite those modest stats. He'll just be turning 20 by the time the draft rolls around, the perfect tender age for organizations like Oklahoma City, San Antonio, or Miami, who have track records of patience with toolsy internationals. Someone's going to talk themselves into the upside; the question is who?